Moneyline Underdog System

[SSI]

The thought of playing ML dogs has always intrigued me.. Ive developed a system for picking them and would like to post the plays here.. This system is 100% mechanical and involves all professional sports (only professional sports).. Ive been hesitant to post these plays (usually when i post, they go belly-up)...

This is only posted for me to keep records... This system has been backtested with good results and ive activiely played these for small amounts since last thursday (sept 14)..

Plays for ML dogs.

sept 14

1. Padres (+1.09).. W (+1.09 units)
2. Twins (+1.01).. W (+1.01 units)
3. Boston (+1.25).. W (+1.25 units)
4. Phillies (+1.20).. L (-1.00 units)

sept 15

5. Mariners (+1.01).. W (+1.01 units)
6. Phillies (+1.26).. W (+1.26 units)
7. Brewers (+1.11).. W (+1.11 units)

sept 16

8. Marlins (+1.25).. L (-1.00 units)
9. Mariners (+1.00).. L (-1.00 units)
10. Twins (+1.39).. W (+1.39 units)
11. Reds (+1.38).. L (-1.00 units)

this gives a 3 day total of: 7-4 (+5.56 units) and brings me to sunday.

Plays for sunday: sept 17

12. Bills (+2.50)
13. AZ Cards (+2.85)
14. Jets (+2.35)
15. Chiefs (+4.50)
16. Redskins (+2.65)
17. Marlins (+1.31)
18. Reds (+1.51)
19. Twins (+1.06)
20. Angels (+1.16)
21. A's (+1.09)

these were played at pinnacle, risking 1 unit per play.. Its real money but its on small side..

I tinker with systems all the time and you never know, when you may find that good one, that will take you for a long ride.

ill update this tomorrow, there will be no daily additions.. this is a 100% mechanical system, with a desired goal of a 50% winning percentage..

 

[teazeman]

please update your findings, why is this in the newbies room?

 

[SSI]

correction:

7-4 (+4.12 units)..

teazeman, im constantly working on things and when i get something that looks promising, i try to post it..

its in newbies room, because its multi-sport....... didnt know what other room to put it in.....

 

[SSI]

teazeman, and anyone else interested this.. The NFL plays are based off of last years results (mostly)...I know that sounds funny but what im working with is a system that should go .500 over any set of 100 games.. I have done a LOT of back testing over the last few weeks and im confident enough to think this will go at least 50/50 over the next 100 games.. ive got 21 in the books since last thursday and ill try and keep this running thru at least 100 real plays.. Then im going to re-evaluate things.. This is merely a side project of mine, as im a numbers guy at heart..

 

[SSI]

sunday: 3-7 (-2.35 units)

4 day overall record: 10-11 (+1.77 units)

about what i expected, however, sunday i want to comment about 2 games. The Marlins gave up 5 in bottom of 10th, yes bottom of 10th to blow a 4 run extra inning lead.. That was a 2.31 unit swing..... Also KC was beaten in overtime by denver and that was a 5.50 unit swing... so there was some left on table..

ill post mondays plays, as soon as all lines pop up....

I have a mathematical formula, so its only a matter of plugging in the filters..

 

[quantumleap]

SSI:

As you probably know, I feel this is a good way of doing things. That is, back-testing previous data to notice trends to bring about a mechanical system. Once you find one that works it is easy money from that point on.

One word of caution however, and that is sometimes these systems won't work from season-to-season. For example, last year the NFL had an inordinate amount of favorites winning which was a change from previous years. Systems that had back-dated information failed.

I don't way to discourage you from doing these. Just wanted to have you watch for any trends that were changing so that you could adjust your formulas.

Good luck.

 

[SSI]

thanks Q/L: this is only a side project, and the amounts are small (for me).

Moneyline Underdog System: 10-11 (+1.77 units)

plays for monday: sept 18th

22. Tigers (+1.10)
23. Braves (+1.12)
24. Cardinals (+1.07)
25. Reds (+2.10)
26. Yanks (+1.22)
27. Jaguars (+1.27)

no additions, all risking one unit.... will update tomorrow..

 

[SSI]

results for monday sept 18th (day 5): 4-2 (+2.69 units)

5 day running total for ML Dog System: 14-13 (+4.46 units)

while the results are good, they are really what i expected... ive put alot of time and effort into this over the last couple of months and i hope that i get the payoff for it...

Ill post plays for tuesday (day 6) shortly...

 

[SSI]

Moneyline Underdog System: 14-13 (+4.46 units)

plays for tuesday: sept 19

28. Reds (+1.26)
29. Twins (+1.10)
30. Tigers (+1.05)
31. Mets (+1.13)
32. Cards (+1.21)

that will be all for tuesday, no additions.. all plays risking one unit..

If this stays successful, ill gradually be increasing the amount that i wager on each game.. I dont plan on mentioning any amounts as, this is based on flat betting and the amounts wagered will be raised as allotted bankroll increases.. I suggest 2% of allotted bankroll on each wager and raising the amounts as bankroll grows by 20%. Just my guidline, that i thought id mention..

this system will be picking up the NHL in october, as its set up for all pro-sports....

also, i have already played the cincinatti bengals (+1.10) for next sundays action..

 

[SSI]

just a couple of notes before tuesdays games..

avg price on all 27 completed plays: (+1.55)
avg price on all 14 winning plays: (+1.25)

just a note for my reference...

if things go well, ill be running this thread for a long time. if not, its over after 100 plays..

if my hunches are right, ive latched on to something big... feel like im talking to myself in this room,,,,,,,,,, but thats ok..

 

[TheProfit+]

No, SSI you aren't talking to yourself here. I'm following you. As a matter of fact I ended up registering just so I could reply to your message. I've been following your picks for a couple of days now. What is the system that you use to derive these picks?

 

[mhk]

Anyone picking dogs outright @ 50% is doing something right..

 

[teazeman]

i'm still with you as well SSI, just didn't want to clutter things up. on the other side of the mets, no play on cards and gotta unit on the rest. gl to us tonight and the rest of the way......

 

[SSI]

good luck tonight, gentlemen...

teazeman, the clutter doesnt bother me... enjoy the commentary..

as some of you may know, i have done alot of work with systems in the past years... really since the common use of the internet, where data is readily available...

2 things, more than anything else have interested me..... Moneyline dogs and Totals.....

the 50% mark on stirctly dogs, would make you rich quickly.. definately the mark that im shooting for..... however, in my back testing, i have yet to find a block set of 100 plays that was not profitable (at least slightly) in using this system...

as for exactly what im doing.......... not going to comment just yet.... lets get thru 100 plays,,,,, then im going to evaluate things...

no such thing as a Holy Grail but no reason that you cant profit tremendously from a Value system that picks strictly dogs, and profit on a VERY consistent basis..

time will tell..

 

[TheProfit+]

Keep up the good work. I'm following your plays daily. The only reason I ask about your system is because I'm worried that you will stop posting after your 100 game test set. Looking like another winning day today.

 

[SSI]

i wont stop, unless we go belly up.. i dont wont to post or get into a detailed conversation---about what im doing--- and then post a long list of losing plays..

id prefer to just see how a complete random set of 100 plays do, in real time..

also note these plays are 100% mechanical and have no bearing on what i may or may not think...

a good example would be the Mets tonight.. my system picked them and then just before game time, the mets sat alot of starters, causing many to jump on marlins or back off Mets.. I stuck with system and the Mets and it proved to be a winner..

ill be around thru the 100 plays or more..

 

[SSI]

day 6, turned out to be a really good one: 4-1 (+3.70 units)

overall 6 day total: 18-14 (+8.16 units)...

somewhat better than i had anticipated...

will post plays for wednesday, tomorrow morning..

 

[stephen1215]

Very nice day today. I'm liking the looks of this, and will definately keep an eye on you.

 

[SSI]

yeah, it was a good day yesterday.....

couple of things about this system:
1. the numbers are on our side (im speaking in terms of number of plays)
2. the math is on our side (not merely the PLUS juice but some other factors as well).

a quick little example of how someone could play this system and i may use this example as a reference:

$1000 starting alloted bankroll... Playing 2% or $20 per play.

acoount grows by 20% or to $1200, at that point increase money risked to $24...

keep increasing amounts risked as account grows by 20%..

eventually we would be at $2500 and playing $50 per game, if all goes well.

just thought id throw that out there, dont want to get ahead of myself..


Moneyline Underdog System: 18-14 (+8.16 units)

Plays for wednesday Sept 20th: (day 7)

33. Orioles (+1.19)
34. Twins (+1.26)
35. Yanks (+1.85)
36. Tigers (+1.00)
37. Reds (+1.24)
38. Braves (+1.05)
39. Mets (+1.16)

all plays flat bet risking one unit..

couple other quick comments..... in baseball the plays are Listed pitchers and if there is a pitching change, it will still be a Play if the selected team, remains a dog.. If they move to a favorite, it would then be a no-play...so you would have to keep up with that...

also some of these bets should be made early and some of them late, if you want to get the best price.. you sort of have to know how to do that, anticipating the line movement... thats a whole other huge subject that i wont touch on now..

 

[SSI]

little on the downside for wed: 3-4 (-0.69 units)

7 day total: 21-18 (+7.47 units)

overall very pleased.